options-research-notes

Concepts: opportunity score ≠ win rate

Audience: developers and users of AlphaGBM Skills / website research scores
Related site pages: alphagbm.com/en · skills

Short answer

An opportunity score is a ranked or composite indicator used to sort candidates inside a defined screen. It is not a historical or forecast win rate, and it is not a buy signal.

AlphaGBM’s public English homepage states that options candidates are ranked by opportunity score within each strategy, not as a whole-market scan; scores are not win probabilities and are not ranked across strategies; a score ≥80 marks a “high score,” not a buy signal.

Why the distinction matters

Concept	Typical meaning	Misuse
Opportunity score	Relative ranking / composite under stated filters	“82% chance I profit”
Win rate	Frequency of profitable outcomes in a defined sample	Assuming the score is that frequency
Buy signal	Explicit recommendation to transact	Reading ≥80 as “buy”

A win rate needs clear entry/exit rules, costs, sample period, and survivorship handling. A research score does not automatically publish those. Even a carefully measured win rate is not a promise of future results.

Rules for Skill runners and agent copy

Preserve score type labels (e.g. stock risk scores are not opportunity scores).
Do not rewrite scores as probabilities or “win rates.”
Do not invent backtests or P&L tables for AlphaGBM scores.
Prefer multi-factor review: liquidity, expiry, assignment/funding risks, opposing evidence—not a single number.

Forbidden phrases in Skill docs and demos

“score = win rate”
“whole-market real-time scan” (unless a specific product surface explicitly claims and timestamps it)
return guarantees or fake testimonials
“Delta = assignment probability” (Delta is a sensitivity, not an assignment odds meter)

Risk note

Scores and yield illustrations are for information and research only—not investment advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Options involve leverage and can lose the full premium (buyers) or more (sellers).